XBSIndex“Bitcoin price at end of 2024 will be $0.15m”
What they posted
My best guess bitcoin scenario 2024-2028: - 2024 (EOY): $0.15m - 2025: $0.8m - 2026: $0.4m - 2027: $0.3m - 2028: $0.4m This scenario (pink dots) would fit S2F^3 power law model perfectly, and would be a bit higher than time^6 type power law models. https://t.co/EpgbaPlAvL
Why it's Bulls**t
Price check (strict-v4/balanced+price): crypto BTC, rule: close above 150000.0 on 2024-12-31. Close rule: period-close wording (year): judged as close_above on 2024-12-31 instead of reach_at_least by 2024-12-31. CoinMarketCap is the preferred close; no CMC API key is configured, so the closes are the Coinbase and Bitstamp exchange daily candles (UTC), labelled as backup closes. Result: Bulls**t - close 93354.22 on 2024-12-31 vs target 150000.0. Coinbase Exchange: false - close 93354.22 on 2024-12-31 vs target 150000.0 {"close_day": "2024-12-31", "close": 93354.22} (https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/candles?granularity=86400&start=2024-06-03T00:00:00Z&end=2025-01-01T00:00:00Z) Bitstamp: false - close 93381.0 on 2024-12-31 vs target 150000.0 {"close_day": "2024-12-31", "close": 93381.0} (https://www.bitstamp.net/api/v2/ohlc/btcusd/?step=86400&limit=1000&start=1717372800&end=1735603200) Kraken: unavailable - window older than Kraken's 720-day public history {} (https://api.kraken.com/0/public/OHLC?pair=XBTUSD&interval=1440&since=1717372799)